Social change work is hard and frustrating and wonderful and terrible; it is also, at times, funny, quirky and just plain fascinating. With this blog we hope to capture all that goes into what we do at Capital Good Fund, and we invite you to join the conversation!

Saturday, September 6, 2014

Loan Portfolio Performance--By The Numbers

Following up on my previous post about our revenue growth, I'd like to share some data on our loan portfolio performance (current as of August 25, 2014):

  • 129 loans disbursed year to date totaling $129,216.  Of these
    • 15 are for energy-efficiency upgrades ($53,969)
    • 33 are "standard consumer" loans ($39,273)
    • 79 are payday loan alternative, or emergency, loans ($35,974)
* Standard consumer loans range from $700 - $2,000, carry an interest rate of 20% APR (fixed) + 4% closing fee, and can be used for a variety of purposes, including a security deposit, vehicle repair, applying for US Citizenship and paying off high-interest debt
** Emergency loans range from $300 - $500, carry an interest rate of 30% APR (fixed) + a 4% closing fee, and are often used to catch up on rent or utilities, pay off a payday loan and make minor vehicle repairs

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Growth--By The Numbers

I was just preparing for a presentation when I came across some interesting numbers vis-a-vis our growth over the past few years.  Specifically, I wanted to generate a report on how much we've raised each year, starting in 2011, as well as what percentage of that has been earned income (e.g., interest on loans and fees we charge for Coaching, as opposed to grants or donations).  Here are the numbers:

2011

  • $167,000 in total income
  • 6% of that was earned income
2012
  • $306,000 in total income
  • 13% of that was earned income
2013
  • $393,000 in total income
  • 13% of that was earned income
2014
  • As of July 23rd, we had already raised $368,000
  • Of that, 24% was earned income
  • Since July 23rd, we have secured over $200,000 in new grants ($125,000 from the US Treasury, $75,000 from Rhode Island Foundation, and others), putting us on track to raise over $600,000 for the year
Our year-over-year growth, then, has been quite good.  From 2011 to 2012, for instance, we grew 83.2%; from 2012 to 2013 we grew 28%; and from 2013 to 2014 we will see growth of 65% (assuming total revenue of $650,000).  Equally importantly, the percentage of our funds coming from interest and fee-for-service income has increased by 18% since 2011.  We are especially proud of this because, in absolute terms, the dollar value of the earned income has gone from a measly $10K in 2011 to a projected $125K this year.

Still, in order to get to our five-year goals of scale, impact and significant earned income, our growth rate will have to remain strong.  In fact, our five-year plan calls for year-over-year growth of 47% next year and 26% by year five; this is compared to growth of about 7% for well-established companies.  And of course, the larger the budget, the harder it is to grow: going from $167K in revenue to $306K is a lot easier than going from $1.5 million to $3 million.

What do you think about these numbers?  What kind of growth are you seeing at your company?

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Two More Thoughts On The Ice Bucket Challenge

My last post on the Ice Bucket Challenge focused on what I think is the key question: how do we transform nonprofit giving from a zero sum game (there's only so much money to go around; what I give you I won't give to another org) into one of abundance (total charitable giving, as a percentage of GDP, increases each year).

This morning I read the best article on the subject that I've seen: Why the Ice Bucket Challenge is bad for you (Maclean's).  The author, Scott Gilmore, makes two phenomenal points:

"First, ALS research is not an especially great need in public health. It is classified as a rare disease and, thankfully, only about 600 people die from it every year in Canada. That sounds like a lot, but that is not even close to the top 20 most fatal diseases according to StatsCan (the top three being cancer, at 72,000 deaths per year; heart disease, at 47,000; and cerebrovascular disease, 13,000).

Monday, August 25, 2014

Live By The Spreadsheet, Die By The Spreadsheet

Image Credit: CraigMoulding
I can't imagine what life was like before the spreadsheet, but it probably required a lot of Advil and Kaopectate!  We use 'em for loan evaluation, financial projections and budgeting; Microsoft Excel is our new pain reliever.  But that's not the end of the story.  Just because it's easier to build a financial projection doesn't mean that the projections themselves are any more accurate.  If anything, the spreadsheet--that beautiful array of rows and columns and built-in formulas--is a kind of Siren Call, luring us to believe in her calculations.  Alas, whether done on paper, tablet, phone, cell phone or rock, calculations are only as good as the assumptions built into them.

Put another way, if you live by the spreadsheet, be ready to die by the spreadsheet.  I've long contended that almost all projections are wrong, but I'd like add my own aphorism: the more complicated the Excel sheet the more likely it is that it contains errors.  I'm specifically thinking about the work Libby Kimzey (VP of Coaching & Systems) and I are doing to determine at what point we can become profitable.  To do this, we have built a fairly large (and pretty!) Excel file containing all manner of assumptions about, among other things, average loan size, number of loans per loan officer, repayment rates, and customer acquisition costs.

Saturday, August 23, 2014

My Take On the Ice Bucket Challenge

Yea, I'm Jealous. I Admit It!
Ellen Ford, CEO of People's Credit Union
I'm going to say it up front: I am jealous of the success of the Ice Bucket Challenge.  The reason should be obvious; for every hundred thousand nonprofits like Capital Good Fund--racking our brains just to raise that next dollar--there is but one wild viral success story.  You may recall the Kony 2012 video put out by Invisible Children, which raised tens of millions for the organization, and the Ice Bucket Challenge has already poured (pardon the pun) 50 million into the coffers of the ALS Association.  Unfortunately, these are outliers.  Aside from responses to natural disasters and attacks such as 9/11, the 2010 Haiti Quarthquake and Typhoon Haiyan (click the links to donate to these causes), nearly all nonprofit fundraising campaigns are limited in ambition and even more limited in their impact on the bottom line.

Friday, August 22, 2014

Predicting The Future

The Weather--And More
No one can predict the future, of course, but statistical analysis can make estimates with varying levels of accuracy about the future.  And we rely on these estimates all the time in our lives: the weather, risks associated with certain behaviors (smoking, eating fatty foods), the likelihood of a sporting team or political candidate winning, the ups and downs of the stock market.  Still, as we go about our days it can be easy to forget these probabilities; our most profound interaction with statistics, after all, is usually deciding whether or not to bring an umbrella to work.

In business, however--and especially in the social impact / financial services business--we are constantly making guesses about the future.  As a recent incident has highlighted, hiring an employee can be a crapshoot; when all is said and done, the interview process is all about reducing the risk of a bad hire to the lowest level possible. The challenge?  People are complicated.  They are hard to judge, and each person has different judgement.  One person may seem lackluster on paper and phenomenal in-person, only to turn out to be unreliable and irresponsible.  Another may receive a tepid letter of recommendation yet thrive in a particular role: maybe it's the new environment, maybe it's the tasks associated with the position, or maybe it's something else.

Thursday, August 21, 2014

A Golden Opportunity, But Not For Long

The Golden Opportunity
For our friends in the banking sector--traditional banks as well as credit unions--the next few years represent a golden opportunity to find new customers, deliver them equitable services and turn them into sustainable sources of profit moving forward.  Why?  Two fundamental reasons: first, "28 percent of the U.S. population, or about 88 million people, are either unbanked (they have no checking or savings account) or underbanked (they have some relationship with an insured financial instution but still rely" on alternative, or predtaory, service providers (Forbes).  Second, the marketplace is rapidly changing, with pre-paid cards swooping in to take advantage of bank branch closures and fewer free checking accounts.

On the face of it, pre-paid cards are both simpler and cheaper than checking accounts.  No checks to deal with, no visits to the nearest bank branch, and it is impossible to overdraft because you can only spend whatever money you "load" onto the card.  But in reality many of them are quite costly.  Consider, for instance, one of the most popular cards, offered by Green Dot.  The fees include $4.95 to get the card in a retail store (it's free online); $5.95 monthly charge, unless you have a balance of $1,000 or make 30 purchases per month; $2.50 when you withdraw from an out-of-network ATM; and $4.95 to reload the card in a store.  These fees can quickly add up to tens of dollar per month, and are tantamount to a tax on money that has already been taxed.

The Pitfalls Of Pre-Paid Cards
Another disadvantage of pre-paid cards is that you aren't building a relationship with a financial instution, something that becomes critical when you are looking for a car or business loan, or a mortgage.  They tend to lack some of the security features of a debit card (such as fraud protections) and, finally, often don't offer checks.  This means that you must either pay for things with the card or with cash; how else will you pay your landlord, for example?  What's more, the lack of checks forces many people to run around town every month to pay bills in-person--utilities, cell phone, cable, etc.  For those barely able to afford a tank of gas, the financial burden can become overwhelming.  At the same time, however, new players are beginning to offer better and cheaper cards; one of the best examples is the AMEX Serve Card, whose fees are quite low.

So why aren't banks swooping in to secure these potential customers?  According to an article in The Guardian, it's because "banks...are leaving poor Americans behind.  Many Americans are not banks' ideal customers--not enough money, not enough transaction--and they are punished for it with a barrage of fees."  The same article points out that credit unions, which are owned by their depositors and aretherefore more responsive to their needs, are taking advantage: "In the last year, credit union membership [added] 2.85 million new members."  One obvious reason is that "about 72% of the nation's 50 largest credit unions...offer free checking...As for banks, that number dropped from 76% in 2009 to 38% in 2013."

Wake Up & Smell The Opportunity!
Still, credit unions have drawbacks, namely smaller networks of branches and ATMs and, in many cases, less robust online banking options.  Which is why we strongly encourage all depository financial instutions to wake up and seize the moment.  Recognize that if you don't compete on price and features, you will lose customers to the pre-paid cards, and once you lose them, you've likely lost them for life.  Recognize that even if you lose money on them in the short-term, in the long-run the investment will pay off.  And finally, recognize that a strong banking sector is essential to a strong and equitable economy, and it's incumbent on you to play a role in ensuring that mainstream financial services are available to all Americans.

All this said, banks aren't for everyone, nor will they ever be.  Below you can find out more information about pre-paid cards.